TIFA Research Polls released on Friday, November 19, 2021, have revealed that a larger percentage of Kenyans prefer Deputy President William Ruto as President Uhuru Kenyatta’s successor.
According to the polls among the announced and most widely considered potential presidential candidates in the 2022 election, DP Ruto has most support, though from only slightly more than one-third of all respondents (38 per cent).
ODM Leader Raila Odinga came second with a popularity of 23 per cent.At the same time, nearly a quarter of Kenyans (23 per cent) are yet to decide as to whom they prefer, with another substantial minority unwilling to reveal their preference as of now(10 per cent).
“Support for the most popular potential candidates is less concentrated in regional terms for both William Ruto and Raila Odinga than it is for any other.
While Ruto scores above his national average (38%) in Central Rift (57%) and Mt. Kenya (53%), Raila scores about his national average (23%) in Coast (26%), Nairobi (27%), Northern (38%) and Nyanza (48%). For Mudavadi and Kalonzo, their quite modest support is concentrated in their home regions (Western 10% and Lower Eastern 9%, respectively),” the report read in part.
The poll also identified the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) as the most popular political party in the country.
However, as of now, no political party or alliance/coalition attracts the support of more than just under one-third of Kenyans, with nearly half (40 per cent) saying they are undecided.
According to the polls, UDA enjoys popularity of 30 per cent which is greater than that of ODM and Jubilee combined (21 per cent).
“Given the period remaining until the next election and with considerable uncertainty regarding possible mergers/coalitions and the determination of the ballot-’menu’ for all elective positions (starting with the presidency), no assumptions can be made now as to what these figures will be by mid-2022,” the report read.Aside from UDA, the support for other political parties is quite highly concentrated in particular regions.
For example, ODM is nearly twice as popular in Nyanza (39 per cent) as it is anywhere else aside from South Rift (33 per cent), and the same applies to Jubilee which is most popular in Lower Eastern (18 per cent).At the same time, the proportion of those not associating themselves with any party is substantial nearly the same across all regions (ranging from 25 per cent in Central Rift to 45 per cent in Nairobi).
The polls further revealed that more than five times as many Kenyans assume that Uhuru prefers Raila rather than Ruto as his successor (48 per cent vs. 9 percent (48 per cent vs. 9 per cent).
Still, a full one-third are uncertain as to who the head of state would like Kenya’s next president to be (33 per cent), though a small but significant minority believe the President is yet to make up his mind about his successor (5 per cent).